26 Spots. 2 Predictions. Who will survive a red tag in their locker and make the team?
Actor Dennis Haysbert as superstitious slugger Pedro Cerrano on the set of “Major League” conducting a ritual to avoid being cut in Spring Training. (Photo courtesy of Paramount Pictures)
No matter how you feel about the team, 26 players will be Reds to start 2023. We both took a stab at predicting who will make the cut.
Zack's Predictions
Catcher (3)
Tyler Stephenson, Curt Casali, Luke Maile
This might be the clearest of all positions, assuming there are no injuries. Last season, the Reds’ catching depth was exposed as terribly weak. We shall never forget the days of Michael Papierski (yikes). With Tyler Stephenson slotted to catch less than half the Reds’ games, Curt Casali and Luke Maile seem like locks to make the team.
Infield (5)
Wil Myers, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Kevin Newman, Jose Barrero
I expect Joey Votto to begin the year on the injured list, but he should be ready relatively quickly. Wil Myers should see the bulk of the playing time at 1B in the early going. Second base belongs to India, as he seeks to return to his 2021 Rookie of the Year form. It should be noted, however, that when appearing at the Reds Caravan stop this January, General Manager Nick Krall stated “we need to get more athletic at second base.” Of all the problems with the team, this was an interesting declaration.
Jose Barrero will likely get one final attempt to show he can hit at the major league level. Kevin Newman provides one of the only options to man shortstop aside from Barrero and the multitude of top prospects appearing in camp. Spencer Steer projects as the starting third baseman, hoping to improve on a relatively quiet debut season.
Outfield (5)
Jake Fraley, T.J. Friedl, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Chad Pinder
With Myers moving to the infield and a lack of viable options, the Reds will continue to have one of the weakest outfields in Major League Baseball. In fact, it is hard for me to project who will earn the most reps. Jake Fraley appears to be in line to start most games in left field. Other than this, there are question marks.
Nick Senzel has had chance after chance to live up to his storied potential that we have been talking about since 2016. Although he is currently an active participant in camp, I expect him to start the season on the injured list. The Reds would be wise to embrace Senzel as a utility player, using him as needed in the outfield, third base, and second base. However, we know the Reds are not always wise. In the event the Reds continue to die on the hill of letting him serve as the unquestioned starting center fielder, Will Benson and T.J. Friedl are contingency options.
Benson, acquired via trade from Cleveland earlier this month, has had very limited MLB experience, but intriguing Minor League numbers. If Senzel does end up being healthy, I could see Benson starting the year in AAA. As of now, right field seems like a titanic question mark while Myers plugs in at 1B. Due to the sincere need for versatility on this strange roster, I believe Nick Solak cracks the big league team out of camp, and non-roster invitee Chad Pinder will find himself in the 26-man fold as well.
Keep in mind, someone out of the cast of characters on this roster will have to serve as the designated hitter.
Starting Rotation (5)
Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Luke Weaver, Connor Overton
The top three rotation spots are one of the most certain things about this roster. From there, a multitude of candidates seeks to fill the 4th and 5th slots. The Reds missed a major opportunity in finding a wily veteran to eat innings, as the talented core of three is still very raw and sure to be limited on innings again. In a season where no one expects the team to be competitive, it should be expected to think about limiting the workload of young pitchers toward the end of the year.
Currently, the roster is not constructed to reflect the reality Phil Castellini informed us about. If the team is truly eliminated from postseason contention before Opening Day, one would think they would prepare for this accordingly. Our favorite ball club apparently kicked the tires on bringing back Johnny Cueto to fill this role. You may be shocked to learn that his services went to a team that is willing to pay him for such.
I believe Luke Weaver is a favorite to land a rotation spot - and statements like these are why this upcoming season looks to be a bleak one. He has more experience than the other options, despite battling injuries and only starting one game out of his 26 appearances last season, and only 13 starts in 2021. Weaver's last fully healthy season came in 2020, where he was shelled to the tune of a 6.58 ERA in 12 starts in the pandemic-shortened season. Frankly, about the only place where Luke Weaver gets a shot as a Major League starter is with the cellar dweller Reds, who will cross their fingers and hope he delivers healthy first-half efforts that can turn him into a trade deadline candidate.
The final rotation spot will likely go to one of Luis Cessa, Justin Dunn, or Connor Overton. If I were the Reds, I would go with who could provide the most reliable innings out of the gates. I think Overton gets the spot, with Cessa landing in the bullpen. Expect to see lefty Brandon Williamson and righty Levi Stoudt make appearances in short order. With injuries, it would not be surprising to see all of these names, and more, make starts this year.
Bullpen (8)
Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, Reiver Sanmartin, Luis Cessa, Buck Farmer, Alex Young, Ian Gibaut, Joel Kuhnel
Having an effective closer on a losing team is like keeping a pair of long johns in the bottom of your drawer. Most days, you won’t need them, but when you do, by golly they get the job done. Still, why pigeonhole your best arm to only pitching in certain scenarios, where you project to lose well over half your games anyway? Regardless, Alexis Diaz will likely serve this role and serve it well. It will be nice to have a healthy Lucas Sims back, and Tejay Antone will be sorely missed as he is set to serve at least the first month of the season on the shelf. I think Cessa is relegated to bullpen duty, not because he is incapable of starting, but because the Reds will need someone who can provide multiple innings of relief.
Farmer, Kuhnel, and Gibaut won’t blow you away, but I expect them to be given every opportunity to earn a spot, mainly because they are already on the roster. This gives them the inside track, even if someone like prospect Ricky Karcher has more talent.
Again, if the Reds were expected to compete, they would hopefully take the best players regardless of prospect status, remaining options, weird nostalgic feelings, or anything else. But, it is the Reds after all. Reiver Sanmartin showed great improvement as a reliever last season, and I think non-roster invitee Alex Young will force the Reds’ hand into taking two lefties out of camp, surpassing recent acquisition Bennett Sousa and fellow NRI Daniel Norris.
Injured List
Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan, Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, Vladimir Gutierrez
Corresponding Roster Moves
- Stuart Fairchild designated for assignment, Chad Pinder added to 40-man
- Sousa designated for assignment, Alex Young added to 40-man
Nick’s Predictions
Catcher (3)
Tyler Stephenson, Curt Casali, Luke Maile
The Reds are going to roll with three catchers in 2023. David Bell has already committed to less time behind the plate for Tyler Stephenson, and Casali and Maile were both brought in during the offseason, neither of whom has Minor League options.
Infield (5)
Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Kevin Newman, Jose Barrero
1B - Joey is in the last guaranteed year of his contract (there is a $20M team option for his age 40 2024 season). There is some speculation that he may not be ready for what could be his final Reds Opening Day due to shoulder surgery last season, but I think he will be there. Expect Wil Myers to cover most if Votto happens to be sidelined.
2B - 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India is looking for a big bounce-back season.
3B - Spencer Steer got a small taste of the big leagues in 2022. I would not say that he is locked in as the starter here, but I think it is his to lose.
SS - This is likely the last chance for the formerly touted Barrero to get it together in the bigs. Newman was one of few additions for the Reds this offseason, which will hopefully provide Jose with both some competitive pressure and veteran guidance. The Pirates needed to make room for budding star Oneil Cruz, and Newman might experience a similar fate in 2023 with top prospect Elly De La Cruz on the rise.
I am sure the Reds are hoping for Barrero to steal the starting job, with Newman filling in all around the infield. Either way, the Reds need two people who can manage the position.
Outfield (4)
Wil Myers, Jake Fraley, Nick Solak, Will Benson
Myers and Fraley are two locks to break camp with the team. Myers was the biggest offseason acquisition, and Fraley showed some bright spots in 2022. As usual, Nick Senzel is not listed as he is still working through a 2022 toe injury. With Senzel out, I expect Solak to start the year with a strong OF presence. I think Solak will shift more into a utility role as the season progresses.
I also expect the change of scenery to serve Benson well, thinking he will have a big spring and make the team. Benson is likely one of the boldest predictions on my list. T.J. Friedl, Stuart Fairchild, and Michael Siani are the biggest threats to edge out Benson, in that order. Also, if Votto starts the year on the injured list, I would expect to see Friedl make the team with Myers covering the first base duties.
Utility (1)
Chad Pinder
The Reds picked up Pinder on 2/1/23 on a Minor League deal. He is a super utility player, marking appearances at 7 different positions in 2022 (including DH), and reportedly taking reps at shortstop and center field to bolster his value. Versatility is needed in today’s landscape and Pinder packs plenty. He is not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will need to be made to get him on there.
Starting Rotation (5)
Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Luke Weaver, Connor Overton
The first three are locked in. Let’s all hope for a major step forward for them all. The last two spots are up for grabs. I am not very confident in Luke Weaver, but I am giving him the edge for the fourth spot as he is one of the few players the Reds went out and added this year. I am penciling in Connor Overton for the fifth spot. He looked decent in 2022 before an injury that kept him out most of the season.
I am hoping that Brandon Williamson works his way into the conversation but think it is likely he starts the year in AAA. Luis Cessa is also in the mix for the fifth spot, as the Reds did attempt to stretch him out as a starter in 2022, but my prediction is that he moves back to the pen to start 2023.
Bullpen (8)
Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, Reiver Sanmartin, Luis Cessa, Buck Farmer, Alex Young, Fernando Cruz, Ian Gibaut
These players are listed in order of my confidence that they make the team. Diaz should be among the league’s best closers this year. Lucas Sims is returning after missing all but 6 games last year, and Sanmartin was impressive after a move to the bullpen last year. Perhaps my second boldest prediction is that Cessa moves back to the bullpen. He never looked right as a starter to me, and I think the Reds make the same conclusion.
Farmer broke camp with the Reds last season and was designated for assignment in May, only to return for a strong finish from July on. Alex Young was signed to a Minor League deal on 1/17/23, and David Bell will want a second lefty. Recently acquired Bennett Sousa and non-roster invitee Daniel Norris are the most likely lefties to take this spot if Young struggles. Fernando Cruz was a September call-up in 2022, posting a cool 1.23 ERA to finish his Major League debut.
I am reluctantly giving the last bullpen spot to Ian Gibaut, who posted a 4.50 ERA in 34 games last season. The Reds seem high on him despite his lack of control on the mound, both emotionally and physically. Joel Kuhnel, Derek Law, Daniel Duarte, Hunter Strickland, and Jared Solomon are the other righties in Major League camp who saw time with the Major League team in 2022 (slim pickings). The only one of these who has a current 40-man roster spot is Kuhnel, who posted a scary 6.36 ERA in 54 games in 2022. I would consider Ricky Karcher first in line to make the team if anyone on my list gets hurt or underperforms.
Injured List
Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan, Vladimir Gutierrez, Nick Senzel, Justin Dunn
Corresponding Roster Moves
Chad Pinder and Alex Young will need to be added to the 40-man roster, which is full. My guess is that Sousa or Kuhnel is either designated for assignment, with the other reassigned to AAA. This opens up one spot. For the last spot, I think Justin Dunn is moved to the 60-day IL.
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