Milestones, Trades, Firings? What does 2023 have in store?
The Reds are not projected to have a great year. 90 losses and a last-place finish are well within the realm of possibility as young players develop and the rebuild rolls on. Seasons like this are the perfect time for some harmless, old-fashioned bold predictions.
Zack's Predictions
1. Elly De La Cruz makes his debut before the All-Star Break
Wouldn’t this be exciting? This young man has very little left to prove at the minor league level. He was 2 home runs shy of a 30/30 season last year between Single-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga. He ended up hitting .304/.359/.586 with 28 HR, 86 RBI, 68 total extra-base hits, and 47 stolen bases in only 121 games. I believe he gets called up in July or sooner, and not due to those above him in the Majors struggling. I think it gets to a point where he simply cannot be denied any longer.
Perhaps he plays 3B, with Steer filling in around the infield and rotating with others at DH. Make no mistake: I think Elly De La Cruz is the next superstar for the Reds. I am predicting a debut to much fanfare, and he will live up to the hype. This would be even more urgent and meaningful if the Reds were in contention at that point in the year. Even still, it will give fans something to cheer for, and getting a future star Major League experience is a no-brainer for a rebuilding team.
2. Joey Votto is an All-Star
MLB still has the policy of including one player from every team, so that means someone from the Reds will be appearing at the Mid-Summer Classic. While we hope multiple Reds are in this conversation, we know that the League tends to look to larger markets before resorting to the lowly Reds.
For example, Brandon Drury had about as good a first half as any player in 2022, and he was left off the team. Anyway, we are hoping that a bounce-back season for Joey is in store, and he expects this for himself. We must not forget that as recently as 2021, Votto hit 36 HR, drove in 99 runs, and received MVP votes. It’s still in there, and the recent banning of the shift should only serve Votto’s career .297 batting average.
Even if his stats aren’t stellar, there is still a path for Votto to earn his 7th All-Star nod. Beginning last year, baseball’s commissioner chooses a player from each league to serve as an “All-Star Legends Selection.” Last year, it was Miguel Cabrera in the American League and Albert Pujols in the National League. Although Pujols had a strong swan-song season, neither of these players’ stats would have warranted a typical All-Star appearance. This selection process is a fine way to honor a player with a last hurrah of sorts, recognizing some of the game’s greats.
With Votto’s quirkiness and social media presence, and the fact that his career is likely soon coming to an end, he would be a perfect option for this role. It is still yet to be determined if this is Votto’s last season or last season in Cincinnati. According to the man himself, if he does not play well, he intends to retire.
3. 10 Players have double-digit HR totals
This is a bold and optimistic, yet entirely possible, prediction for the 2023 Reds. Last season, 7 different players hit at least 10 home runs. I will venture to say that the Reds’ offense will not be what plagues them this year. It will not be a tall task for the offense to be stronger than last year. I foresee decent run production and power numbers.
I think the lack of pitching depth at the back end of the rotation, and the back end of games, will be what limits our favorite team. Anyway, I will even be so bold as to list the players I think reach 10 home runs:
Votto, India, Stephenson, Myers, Steer, Fraley, Friedl, Benson, Barrero, De La Cruz
Ok, so the last two are REALLY bold, considering Barrero has struggled mightily early in his career and Elly De La Cruz will begin the year in the Minor Leagues. However, 10 home runs is not a crazy bet for anyone who plays half their games at GABP, and I think Elly forces the Reds’ hand into a mid-season call-up.
Votto, India, and Stephenson should easily eclipse 10 if they are healthy. If Wil Myers has 15 or so home runs by the All-Star Break, he will likely be a trade chip. He has hit 10 or more in 7 different seasons, and although last year he was limited by injury, a bounce back can be fully expected. The power numbers were not there for Steer in his 28 games with the Reds, but he has hit nearly 50 over the last two minor league seasons. He will hit. Fraley and Friedl emerged with power surges late last season. Fraley popped out 12 in 68 games, and Friedl hit 8 in 72 games. There is no reason to believe they cannot continue at this pace.
Will Benson is a bit of a wild card. He has not proven himself at the Major League level, but has hit 10+ in most of his full minor league seasons and showed pop this spring. If the Reds struggle this year, we can at least hope to see some dingers flying all over the town.
Nick's Predictions
1. Alexis Diaz is traded at the deadline
The Reds are likely to be out of competition and considered sellers at the trade deadline. The question is whether there will be any pieces that make sense to move. Considering his young age, team-friendly contract status, and massive potential, trading Diaz would be a surprising move. He made his electrifying debut in 2022 and is under team control for the next 5 seasons.
However, the useful window of an elite backend reliever/closer is unpredictable at best in today's landscape. It is also useless to have a lights-out closer on a team that does not project to win many games, let alone compete for a World Series title, and it seems that the Reds will likely not be competitive for the World Series until 2025 at the very earliest.
GM Nick Krall has been clearing house of anything that can bring a return. The Mets have previously been connected to Diaz, and after his brother's WBC injury, the rumors have already been resurrected. There are sure to be more suitors too, and I think Diaz is right on the edge of availability for the right price. I believe that a team with aims to win the World Series in 2023 or 2024 is willing to meet the rightfully astronomical asking price of the Reds for Diaz.
2. Spencer Steer finishes in the top 5 for National League Rookie of the Year
Spencer Steer is the currently uncontested third basemen for the Redlegs. He made a relatively quiet entrance to the majors last fall, appearing in 28 games. I think that experience will transition into a nice start to his 2023 campaign. He hit 23 home runs with 75 RBI in 2022 between AA and AAA, hitting .274 across only 102 games. I expect a major step forward from Steer this season as he holds down the hot corner, and will take this a step further and predict that he is the Reds' most valuable offensive player this year.
3. David Bell manages his last game for the Reds
Bell signed a two-year extension after the 2021 season. The Reds finished 3rd that season and squeaked into the expanded playoffs in 2020 (where they were utterly embarrassed). Bell has managed the team since 2019, going an uninspiring 251-295. Many will say that he has not had any players to work with, but those same people will also say that the Reds traded everyone in the last 4 seasons - which means the players have been there. Bell has had names like Bauer, Gray, Castillo, Suarez, Barnhart, Castellanos, Votto, Puig, and Winker to work with during his tenure.
I believe that when Bell was hired before 2019, it was to take the team as far as possible. The playoffs were a reality. When he was offered an extension in 2021, it was not to lead the team to a World Series. How could it have been? Ownership and the front office knew they were tearing it all down. I believe Bell was meant to be the affordable sacrificial lamb of ownership, toeing the company line, catering to the front office's rebuild, and guiding the team through with as much dignity as possible. I do not envy that position and think Bell has carried the duties gracefully.
Notice that I have not said the word "fired." I think that Bell will move back to a player development/advisory role with the Reds after his contract expires. Cincinnati will want to be careful with the Bell legacy, as David's father Buddy is a close friend of owner Bob Castellini, and grandfather Gus is a Reds Hall of Famer. David Bell is an ally to his players and has had plenty of accomplishments around baseball. However, his laid back style and lack of winning experience do not mesh well with the young and moldable core of players on his club.
2024 is the perfect season to bring in an experienced manager. There is almost no guaranteed money on the books, it will be a pivotal year for the development of Major League ready prospects, and the young rotation will have two full years under their belt. Bring in a battle-tested manager in 2024 to let him learn the organization, then spend a ton of money in the offseason to get what that manager needs to win, and start going for it in 2025.
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