What have the Reds done to better themselves ahead of the 2024 season?
Jeimer Candelario visits Great American Ballpark for a press conference (via @Reds / X)
2023 Review
Welcome back, readers! We hope you are as excited for the 2024 Reds as we are. There is more to be optimistic about this season than there has been in quite some time. The 2023 Reds finished 82-80, the third winning record under David Bell's stewardship, earning him 6th place in the NL Manager of the Year voting. Frankly, he should have finished higher, effectively managing a revolving door of injured pitching and ultra-talented rookies into a cohesive unit. However, the goal is to win championships, and Reds finished in 3rd place NL Central and missed a Wild Card slot by a mere two games. So, what has the club done to work toward a playoff berth next season? Although things have been quiet on the trade front, the Reds have made a splash in the free agent market.
The Signings
Jeimer Candelario (3B/1B)
3 years, $45MM ($15MM club option for 2027)
Although not a household name by any stretch, Candelario is the headline signing for the Reds so far this offseason. We did not have him on our radar, given the quantity of talented infielders already in the fold. The signing of a third baseman will certainly cause some shuffling, as Nick Krall has already discussed. Spencer Steer projects to be the team's primary left fielder, Jonathan India will see time in new positions, and Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, and Matt McLain will all round out the infield. Additionally, this likely puts to rest any potential for Joey Votto to return to the Reds for the 2024 season.
While he had the best season of his career in 2023, we must admit we are not entirely optimistic. At 30 years old, he has eclipsed 20 home runs only once, never amassed more than 70 RBI, and is a career .243 hitter. Our fear is that Candelario will be Mike Moustakas 2.0, as a 30+ year-old infielder coming off a career year earning a multi-million, multi-year deal. Still, he has proven to be a doubles machine at times, he is a switch hitter who can play multiple positions, he has upside to potentially rake in Great American Ball Park, and will provide a veteran presence.
Frankie Montas (RHP)
1 year, $14MM ($20MM mutual option for 2025, $2MM buyout)
The signing of Montas is a testament to the Reds' financial flexibility this season. They can afford to take a gamble on a guy like Montas, who pitched in only one game last season due to injury. Montas has spent most of his 8-year career with the Athletics, who flipped him to the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline. Montas has seen success in the past, pitching to a career 3.90 ERA. His best season was in 2021, where he finished 6th in AL Cy Young Award voting, hurling 187 innings with a 3.37 ERA while leading the AL with 32 starts. With Montas slotting into the rotation, the Reds have a much-needed veteran arm who can hopefully do more than simply eat innings.
Emilio Pagán (RHP)
2 years, $16MM (opt-out clause after first year)
Without a doubt, bullpen help was an area of need for the Reds. In 2023, Cincinnati was in the middle of the pack with a 4.11 relief ERA. The Reds bullpen issued the 3rd most walks in MLB and pitched the 6th most relief innings. The good news is that Emilio Pagán has been dominant in the past and had a solid year in 2023, crafting a 2.99 ERA over 66 games. The not-so-good news is that Pagán, entering his age 33 season, now joins his 6th team in 8 years, which is usually not a great sign for a reliever. Also, his best season came back in 2019, and he has averaged an ERA over 4.00 since then. The hope is the Reds can get a strong season out of Pagán and build on his 2023 success.
Nick Martinez (RHP)
2 years, $26MM ($14MM in year 1, opt-out clause after first year)
Martinez is an interesting signing for the Reds, and is sure to provide veteran pitching depth whether it is out of the bullpen or in the rotation. He has seen recent success, pitching to an ERA of 3.45 over the past 2 seasons with the Padres. Prior to that, he spent 3 seasons in Japan and 4 middling seasons with Texas. Last year, Martinez displayed his versatility. He started 9 games, closed 6, and appeared in 63 total games. Reds GM Nick Krall stated Martinez will be given a chance to compete for a role as a starter, and it is expected he will be treated as such at the beginning of Spring Training. He will compete to join Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas, Andrew Abbott.
Analysis
There are a lot of commonalities among the four free agent signings. All have had roller coaster careers with times of struggle and success. They are all in their 30s, which will bring veteran experience to the young core of players.
The truth of the matter is that each of these signings are wild cards. Pagán and Martinez might continue their recent success, or they could revert back to previous versions of themselves. Montas could bounce back to a top-of the-rotation type starter, or he could be impacted by effects from last season's injury.
Candelario could mash the ball like he did this past season, or he could struggle to repeat the career year he had. At this point, however, we owe the Reds' executives some confidence and remain optimistic that these signings will pay dividends.
While Krall indicated the Reds are likely done making moves, we commend the organization for taking some chances and spending some cash to improve the roster. In conclusion, we are not blown away by any of the signings, but we believe these guys have a real chance to be solid additions. Go Reds!
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