Will the team improve or regress in 2023?
We wish we could project with more optimism this season. The reality is this will likely be a long year in the Queen City. We make our predictions below:
Zack's Predictions
Record: 68-94
4th Place in NL Central
Team MVP: Tyler Stephenson
Pitcher of the Year: Nick Lodolo
With the beginning of every new season comes a sense of renewed optimism and the thrill that is Opening Day. Every team has the same record, and anything can happen. However, nothing takes the wind out of your sails like a bad start. Or, even worse, a historically horrendous start. Last year, the Reds were basically eliminated from postseason contention by May, starting at 3-21.
In 2018, the Reds fired Bryan Price when his team got off to a 3-15 start. Since there appears to be no expectation for winning in Cincinnati, David Bell’s job as manager and Company Man is seemingly safe no matter how the team performs. It is already a lot to ask of fans to get excited for a team that mustered 62 wins last season. It is even more difficult when that team did very little to improve.
As much as I would like to say this year’s team will be better, that is a tough sell. The team has a top-3 in the rotation that is likely to be better than average. However, having no innings-eating starting pitchers (think Wade Miley and Mike Minor of seasons past) was a grave error by the Reds' management team. We instead have oft-injured Luke Weaver (starting the season on the IL), reliever-turned-starter Luis Cessa, and recovering-from-injury-with-less-than-stellar-spring Connor Overton.
The team's bullpen will almost assuredly be among the league’s worst. Diaz should be strong, but middle relief will likely be a problem. I hope I am wrong about this - but Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone will be sorely missed as the Reds try to find out late in games. Assuming they do not start as badly in 2022, I think the Reds win 8 more than last year, but will not crack 70 wins. I think they will be fine in scoring, but the bullpen will cough up many games that our strong starting pitchers worked.
Another 90-loss season should spell the end for David Bell. Only time will tell!
Nick's Predictions
Record: 72-90
4th Place in NL Central
Team MVP: Spencer Steer
Pitcher of the Year: Hunter Greene
The Reds will look to avoid last place in back-to-back seasons. All indications point to a battle for fourth place with Pittsburgh. The Pirates have a decent lineup, but I am attributing 10 more wins for the Redlegs in 2023 based solely on a major step forward from the trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft.
All three missed some time due to injuries in 2022, which also happened to be each hurler's rookie season. I think a full year from all three without major injuries or innings limits will play a major factor in improving the Red's record. The bullpen is likely to be a weakness this year, but I believe that a more established presence from the front of the rotation is enough to pull the Reds out of the cellar of the NL Central.
I think Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl make significant steps forward this year, both benefitting from recent rule changes and a clean bill of health. I am betting that Spencer Steer gets into the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Major League-ready depth was also one of the team's biggest downfalls last year.
The Reds should have fewer characters like Ronnie Dawson, Taylor Motter, Michael Papierski, and JT Riddle getting into games thanks to a pool of talented prospects who are getting closer to their debuts.
More depth, a firmer rotation, and one more year of experience for every young player should offset the pitching woes of the bullpen and bottom of the rotation.
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